It’s a strange year for films. This awards season, there are undoubtedly some great movies up for the top gongs but, unlike previous years, we’d challenge anyone to name all nine titles nominated for Best Picture and actually get them right.
However, in the name of fairness, we’ve spent several evenings at the multiplex to judge what films we think will come out on top. So who should be making the most confident Arrival on the 26th of February? Will the favourites win out come Hell or High Water, or have the Academy judges in La La Land found themselves sat on the Fences and backing some Hidden Figures?
Whatever happens, this is who we think should be in the limelight – or should that be Moonlight?
Nominees: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight
Despite early buzz for Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea, La La Land has come tap dancing to the fore in recent weeks – sprinkling its old-school magic over the competition and drowning the other nominees in its brightly-coloured and whimsical nostalgia.
There’s always the chance that Moonlight will pull through, but it looks like a definite two horse race now.
The Winner: La La Land
The Outside Chance: Moonlight
Nominees: Denis Villeneuve – Arrival, Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge, Damien Chazelle – La La Land, Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea, Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Although he didn’t even receive a Best Director nod for astoundingly intense music drama Whiplash, Damien Chazelle’s follow up, La La Land, looks set to sweep the board this year. As such, Chazelle will probably be scooping up his first Oscar – and it won’t go undeserved. In terms of pioneering direction, this is the only film in the category that pushes the boundaries past simple drama.
We wouldn’t mind, however, if Mel Gibson swooped in and took the gong for his stunning war epic, Hacksaw Ridge. It would be a nice comeback for Gibson, who seems to have clawed his way out of a rougher-than-rough patch and created a thoughtful, considered and gripping piece of cinema.
The Winner: Damien Chazelle – La La Land
The Outside Chance: Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
Nominees: Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea, Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge, Ryan Gosling – La La Land, Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic, Denzel Washington – Fences
Despite Gosling tapping his shoes and the ivories, and Garfield’s gurning turn as pacifist Desmond Doss, anyone who has seen Viggo Mortensen will know that he deserves this Oscar for his turn as single father of six Ben Cash, in the hugely-underrated Captain Fantastic. Unfortunately, we just don’t see it happening.
Instead, we predict Denzel Washington will grab his third Oscar – but first as Leading Actor – for his role in Fences. Ryan Gosling, who won the Golden Globe for Best Performance in a Musical or Comedy, will likely miss out given the weight of the other performances – Casey Affleck’s haunting turn as Lee Chandler is even more likely in our opinion.
The Winner: Denzel Washington – Fences
The Outside Chance: Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Nominees: Isabelle Huppert – Elle, Ruth Negga – Loving, Natalie Portman – Jackie, Emma Stone – La La Land, Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
After Amy Adams was criminally snubbed – for both Nocturnal Animals and Arrival – many were angered by Meryl Streep’s 20th Oscar nomination – something which now seems like a token nod in this category.
And, as with Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone’s musical turn might lack the seriousness the Academy want in a leading lady. Instead, we think Ruth Negga’s Mildred Loving will take home the statuette – but she may be pipped by another biopic, Natalie Portman in Jackie.
The Winner: Ruth Negga – Loving
The Outside Chance: Natalie Portman – Jackie
Nominees: Hell or High Water, La La Land, The Lobster, Manchester by the Sea, 20th Century Women
The Lobster may fall foul of the same problem as Captain Fantastic – not enough hype, released too long ago and a little out of the mainstream. However, if the award was given to the most original – full stop – then there would be no competition. This tale of singletons transforming into animals at a remote and kitsch resort is an incredibly strange, twisted and hilarious black comedy.
La La Land might not actually win here – it’s a shoo-in for best soundtrack, where the real story lies – and instead Manchester by the Sea could come in and take the win.
The Winner: The Lobster (we hope).
The Outside Chance: Manchester by the Sea
Best Supporting Actor – Mahershala Ali
A relative unknown – unless you watched Netflix’s Luke Cage late last year – Ali is almost certainly walking home with the Oscar for Moonlight. Rave reviews and a truly powerful performance give him the edge here.
Best Supporting Actress – Viola Davies
The Academy has solved its race problem. Two years ago, when none of the twenty actors nominated in the four main categories were black, there was an outcry. Now, over half the actresses in this category, Viola Davies, Naomie Harris and Octavia Spencer, are. Viola, however, is a certainty for Fences.
Best Adapted Screenplay – Hidden Figures
Best Animated Film – Zootopia
Best Documentary – 13th
Best Cinematography – La La Land
Best Original Score – La La Land
Best Costume Design – Jackie
Best Visual Effects – Doctor Strange
Best Makeup and Hairstyling – Suicide Squad
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